Engineering Statistics & Probability
Descriptive statistics on your measured data, and the probability rules — binomial trials, independent and mutually exclusive events, and conditional probability with the Bayes tree drawn. Covers §1.0 and §2.0.
Data Summary
Binomial Trials
Two Events A and B
Conditional Probability & Bayes
Classic screening setup: event D occurs with prior P(D); a test reports positive with sensitivity P(+|D) and false-alarm rate P(+|D′).
Probability tree — branch products give the four joint outcomes. FIG. E01-1
Bayes' theorem is just the tree read backwards: of all the paths that end in a positive result, what fraction passed through D first? When the prior is small, false alarms from the huge D′ branch can swamp true detections — the classic base-rate surprise.